A market briefing from Interlogis
Table of Contents
In a few weeks, the European light commercial transport market will change permanently. As CEO of a company that has operated in this segment for years, I want to share some thoughts on what is actually coming- not to persuade anyone, but to offer a realistic perspective on the challenges and changes we are all facing.
Most of the shippers I speak with still do not fully appreciate the scale of what July 1st represents. The legal text has been clear for some time. What is less discussed is the operational mathematics that follow.
From July 1st, 2026, vans between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes performing international transport will fall under the same tachograph rules as heavy trucks. This means 9-hour daily driving limits, mandatory rest periods, and full registration of driver working time. The regulation is part of the EU Mobility Package and is not subject to further delay.
A van today, operating in international express transport, typically completes 16,000 to 18,000 productive kilometers per month. That figure is the foundation on which the entire segment was built. From July 1st, the same fleet of vans operates under the same driving and rest rules as heavy trucks. Realistic monthly capacity drops to roughly 12,000 to 13,000 kilometers per vehicle.
But the impact does not end with the driving limits. Several compounding factors reduce available capacity simultaneously – each manageable on its own, but together creating a structural shortage across the European market.
Figure 1: Cascading reduction in European van capacity. Same vehicles drive fewer kilometers, some operators close down, many will not have tachographs installed in time, a portion of the fleet moves below 2.5 tonnes to escape regulation, and some operators switch to heavier vehicles. Together these factors reduce effective European van capacity to roughly 47% of today’s level.
According to the Polish Association of International Road Carriers (ZMPD), 1,234 transport companies closed in the first quarter of 2026 alone – nearly as many as in all of 2025. That exit trend will accelerate after July 1st, as operators who tried to wait and see discover they are no longer competitive. According to industry analysis from trans.info, approximately 88% of light commercial hauliers will not have tachographs installed and certified by July 1st, even those actively trying to comply.
Poland accounts for the majority of light commercial international transport across Europe. What happens to this segment in Poland will reshape capacity availability for shippers across the entire continent.
The mathematics is straightforward. A van’s monthly fixed costs- driver salary, vehicle lease, insurance, and administrative overhead- remain nearly the same whether the vehicle drives 18,000 km or 12,500 km. When the number of productive kilometers decreases significantly, the cost of each kilometer naturally becomes higher.
This is not pricing strategy. It is arithmetic.
Figure 2: Cost per kilometer comparison across vehicle classes. A van today costs significantly less than a medium truck or a truck-and-trailer combination — this is the historical advantage of the segment. After 1 July, the same single-driver van costs roughly the same per kilometer as a medium truck, eliminating the cost advantage that defined light commercial transport. A truck-and-trailer remains the most expensive option but offers far greater payload.
The implication is direct. Until now, customers chose vans because they delivered express speed at a meaningfully lower cost than larger trucks. After 1 July, that price gap closes. Vans remain valuable for direct delivery, route flexibility and access to drivers with category B license- but the pure cost argument disappears. Shippers will need to choose vans for what they uniquely offer, not for what they save.
This is the part that worries me about conversations happening across the market right now. Some hauliers are reportedly still quoting at or near current prices, hoping to win contracts during the uncertainty. Those quotes cannot be honored after July 1st unless the operator is running outside the regulation. The math does not allow it.
The shippers accepting those quotes today are taking on a risk they may not fully see. In July, those operators will either raise prices unilaterally, fail to deliver on agreed terms, or simply exit the market when they realize they are losing money on every kilometer.
The cost change is one part of the story. The other part is operational: the entire rhythm of how light commercial transport is performed across Europe will change. The flexibility that defined this segment- ability to schedule loading and unloading at almost any hour – will be sharply reduced under the new rules.
Consider a typical operation today. A driver arrives at a delivery point in the morning, unloads at 11:00, takes seven or eight hours of rest, then loads again at 19:00 and drives overnight to the next destination. This is a routine cycle that works for express transport, and it is how many time-critical flows operate today.
After July 1st, the same cycle becomes legally impossible with a single driver. The unload at 11:00 already consumes part of the daily 9-hour driving allowance. After unloading, the driver must take 11 hours of mandatory daily rest. At 19:00 – when the load was previously collected – the driver is still in the middle of the mandatory rest period and cannot legally drive. The earliest the same driver can start loading again is 23:00 – four hours later than the historical schedule.
Figure 3: A driver’s 24-hour operational cycle, before and after July 1st. On the left, today’s flexible model permits the classic “unload at 11:00, rest, reload at 19:00, drive overnight” rhythm. On the right, the mandatory 11-hour daily rest period after the morning unload blocks the evening loading entirely. The earliest the same driver can resume loading is 23:00 — four hours after the previous schedule, with significant implications for evening pickup operations.
For shippers, this means three practical changes. Either the unload happens earlier in the day, forcing rescheduling with consignees. Or the load is collected the next day, adding 24 hours to delivery time. Or a second driver is added, significantly raising cost. The flexibility that defined van transport – being able to call a driver at any hour and get fast door-to-door delivery – no longer exists under the new rules.
A severe supply-demand shock is highly likely in the first weeks after July 1st. Capacity will be visibly short across Europe. Spot rates will spike unpredictably. Some shippers will not get their loads moved at all. The operators who took on contracts they cannot fulfill will either raise prices unilaterally, fail to deliver, or quietly exit the market.
By September, the market will begin to find a new equilibrium. But it will not be at pre-July prices. The structural cost base has permanently shifted. The next twelve months will reshape this segment more than the past decade combined.
This is where I would genuinely value the perspectives of others – shippers, fellow operators, brokers, supply chain leaders. A few questions I find myself returning to:
The operators who navigate this transition successfully will be those who have done the mathematics honestly and priced accordingly from the start. The shippers who navigate it best will be those who decide now which of their flows truly require express transport – and which can adapt to consolidation, batching, or longer lead times.
We can either let this happen to us, or we can engage with it openly, transparently, and find better solutions together. I would be very interested in hearing how others in the industry are approaching this. The conversation needs to happen now – not in July, when everyone is reacting.
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